What could the airfreight market deliver in 2025? The year 2024 was quite a challenging one for the logistics world, especially having to contend with disruptions – a key challenge that faced many logistics companies.
Ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform, Xeneta has released its 2025 Air Outlook.
“The Red Sea effect” as Locate2u has dubbed the Red Sea crisis was one such challenge that caused turbulent waters across the logistics industry. Xeneta emphasizes market forces will carry over into 2025.
Xeneta stresses five themes to put on the watchlist for 2025:
- Uptick in the traditional air cargo market: Growth will be driven by demand for semiconductors used in generative AI.
- Continued disruption in ocean container shipping: The Red Sea conflict is unlikely to boost demand growth in 2025, but risks persist.
- Robust e-commerce growth and increasing regulation: E-commerce is estimated to grow 14% annually until 2026.
- Global air cargo supply and demand: Global air cargo demand is expected to grow by 4-6%, with capacity rising by 3-4% year-on-year.
- Wildcards and other emerging trends: Ongoing uncertainty and risk of disruptions worldwide.
Locate2u previously reported on the ocean front, Maersk’s CEO Vincent Clerc emphasizing that months ahead are going to be tough for both carriers and businesses.
E-commerce still on the up: Watch airfreight networks
We have seen an e-commerce boom in the last 12 months. “The appetite of consumers in the West for low-cost goods manufactured in Asia is seemingly only getting stronger. As such, readers should expect e-commerce demand to continue to grow in 2025,” Xeneta highlights.
Wenwen Zhang, air freight analyst at Xeneta has some advice though: “E-commerce is a local phenomena, but impacting shippers around the globe. You better stay up to date on how airlines are developing their network as changes could tighten capacity in markets that have no direct link with the e-commerce volumes.”
Meeting increasing demand out of Asia
Zhang highlights the artificial intelligence (AI) ‘wave’ will lift the recently-stagnant B2B airfreight market but that this will not have as dramatic an impact on global demand when compared to factors in 2024 such as the Red Sea Crisis and the rise of e-commerce.
“Shippers on corridors with lower demand growth are still at risk if airlines remove capacity from secondary trades to meet the increasing demand out of Asia,” says Zhang.
But logistics companies are probably wondering, could there be some optimism on the horizon for the air freight market?
With the Red Sea crisis still ongoing, logistics companies have had to look for alternatives to meet cargo needs.
Imagine being an auto parts supplier needing to get supplies to an assembly plant, instead of ocean freight, the quicker transport mode air freight would have to suffice.
Niall van de Wouw Chief Airfreight Officer, Xeneta says: “The Red Sea effect on the air freight market has plateaued and might even recede in 2025. This could provide a bit of breathing space for shippers, but the threat of further disruption remains given the geo-political climate.”
About the author
Sharl is a qualified journalist. He has over 10 years’ experience in the media industry, including positions as an editor of a magazine and Business Editor of a daily newspaper. Sharl also has experience in logistics specifically operations, where he worked with global food aid organisations distributing food into Africa. Sharl enjoys writing business stories and human interest pieces.
